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On the Economics of Iraq

As US Defense Secretary Robert Gates tries to do something about NATO troop levels in Afghanistan and worries that "for many Europeans the missions in Iraq and Afghanistan are confused,"¹ I think he finds himself in the same quandary as the president, when he said, in 2006, "You know, one of the hardest parts of my job is to connect Iraq to the war on terror."² But this is now six years after Mr Bush told three US senators (a year before the invasion of Iraq), "Fuck Saddam. We're taking him out."³ And over four years since he announced that "Major combat operations in Iraq have ended."⁴ And four years after promising "we're not going to have any casualties" in Iraq.⁵ And it's certainly far from clear that the "tide is turning."⁶

According to Refugees International, one in five Iraqis is now displaced; among those who have fled the country, "few consider return to Iraq an option."⁷ The "surge" has meant an increase of 50 percent in the "number of detainees held by the American-led military forces in Iraq."⁸ Violence against Iraqi civilians still occurs.⁹ Violence against women in Iraq is becoming brutally grotesque, as women are tortured, strangled, beheaded, disfigured, and left with hands and legs chopped off.¹⁰

The US military can't seem to make much headway in the Middle East. In an AP report published on Friday, a classified Pentagon assessment has concluded that the "response risk level" in Iraq still has not been reduced, and "long battlefield tours in Iraq and Afghanistan, along with persistent terrorist activity and other threats, have prevented the US military from improving its ability to respond to any new crisis."¹¹

If there is any encouraging news to report at all, it is that Americans finally believe the number one way to stimulate our sinking economy is to "get the country out of Iraq," according to an AP-Ipsos poll.¹²

1.  "Gates Says Anger Over Iraq Hurts Afghan Effort," New York Times, February 9, 2008.
2.  "Bush: 'We Don't Torture'," CBS News, September 6, 2006.
3.  "Bush's Alderaan," Consortium, April 8, 2003: "As he marched the nation to war, Bush presented himself as a Christian man of peace who saw war only as a last resort. But in a remarkable though little noted disclosure, Time magazine reported that in March 2002—a full year before the invasion—Bush outlined his real thinking to three US senators, 'Fuck Saddam,' Bush said. 'We're taking him out.'" Apparently, Bush and Cheney both like the "F" word; the former also said that if he ever caught Osama bin Laden, "I will screw him in the ass!" See Haaretz, February 15, 2007: Speaking of George Bush, with whom Sharon developed a very close relationship, Uri Dan recalls that Sharon's delicacy made him reluctant to repeat what the president had told him when they discussed Osama bin Laden. Finally he relented. And here is what the leader of the Western world, valiant warrior in the battle of cultures, promised to do to bin Laden if he caught him: "I will screw him in the ass!"
4.  "President Bush Announces Combat Operations in Iraq Have Ended," US Department of State, May 1, 2003.
5.  "Bush Predicted No Iraq Casualties, Robertson Says," Washington Post, October 21, 2004.
6.  Press Conference of the President, June 14, 2006: "I think—tide turning—see, as I remember—I was raised in the desert, but tides kind of—it's easy to see a tide turn—did I say those words?"
7.  See "The Iraqi Displacement Crisis," Refugees International, January 31, 2008: "One in five Iraqis is now displaced. The UN estimates that almost 5 million Iraqis have been displaced by violence in their country, the vast majority of which have fled since 2003. Over 2.4 million have vacated their homes for safer areas within Iraq, 1.5 million are now living in Syria, and over 1 million refugees inhabit Jordan, Iran, Egypt, Lebanon, Turkey and Gulf States. Most Iraqis are determined to be resettled to Europe or North America, and few consider return to Iraq an option."
8.  "With Troop Rise, Iraqi Detainees Soar in Number," New York Times, August 25, 2007. See Penal Reform Digest, August 2007, Issue 9; "A Soaring Prison Population in Iraq," Harper's Magazine, August 25, 2007.
9.  "23 killed in Iraq car bombing," AFP, February 10, 2008.
10.  "Violations of 'Islamic teachings' take deadly toll on Iraqi women," CNN, February 8, 2008.
11.  "War strains US military in tackling new crises," AP/MSNBC, February 8, 2008.
12.  "AP Poll: Leaving Iraq Will Help Economy," AP, February 8, 2008; see the poll's Topline Results at Ipsos News Center.